Simulating the influence of climate change on hydrological processes at Buha River basin of Qinghai Lake by SWIM

Qinghai Lake basin is a key area to maintain the ecological security of eastern Tibetan Plateau.
Projections of climate change in Tibetan Plateau and SWIM (soil and water in tegrated  model) are used to
 predict potential changes in runoff depth, evapotranspiration and deep percolation at Buha River Basin in three
periods of the future (2016—2035,2046—2065,2081—2100).Monthly runoff simulated by SWIM is found to
 corres pond well with measure dvalues. Therefore SWIM  model can be applied to alpineregions. With increase
 inprecipitation and riseint emperatures, runoff depth and evapotrans piration will continuetoin crease up to
 2100. Inaddition, deep percolation will decline initially then recover and rise. The impact of climate change on
 hydrological processes varies in different seasons. Impact on deep percolation concentrates in July and August,
 effect on runoff depth and evapotrans pirationisseen between June and August. Some spatial differences in
hydrological processes are present .Increase in runoff depth will concent rate in the upstream and down stream
 areas, whereas actual evapotranspiration changes significantly in the middle and upper reaches. Further, deep
 percolation will rise slightly in parts of the upstream and estuaries, but will decline in the middle reaches.
 These results will be useful for water resources management and watershed conservation.