中国肉类供需模型研究综述及研究建议

A meat supply-demand model and some suggestions

  • 摘要: 经过对现有供需模型效果与肉类供需问题的分析,发现不能忽略地区间的差异;机器学习方法是肉类供需研究方面更可靠的工具;肉类的消费、生产、贸易和政府政策举措时刻处在动态平衡的状态,应在考虑地区差异性的基础上,分别针对消费、生产、贸易、政策模块进行历史研究和未来预估,运用多主体思想模拟各模块之间的平衡互动关系.

     

    Abstract: Continued developments in Chinese economy and society have led to a rapidly changing meat supply-demand system.Accurate and long-term prediction of meat supply-demand has become a concern for scholars.Quantitative research on the supply and demand of meat in China involves two main model types: time series-based models and evolutionary attribution models.Meat supply-demand is complex, previous works often used simplifications, unreflective of the complex nature of meat supply-demand.Existing supply-demand models on meat supply and demand indicate that differences among regions must not be ignored, machine learning is reliable in the meat supply-demand field.Meat consumption, production, trade and government policy are dynamically balanced at all times.Regional differences and historical research are taken into account, forecasts should be carried out on consumption, production, trade and policy modules respectively.Balanced interactions between modules should be simulated using multi-agent thinking.

     

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