卢嘉怡, 叶爱中, 吴国灿, 毛玉娜. 北京地区近300年降水季节性变化特征[J]. 华体会外围 (自然科学版). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2024135
引用本文: 卢嘉怡, 叶爱中, 吴国灿, 毛玉娜. 北京地区近300年降水季节性变化特征[J]. 华体会外围 (自然科学版). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2024135
JIAYI Lu, AIZHONG Ye, GUOCAN Wu, YUNA Mao. Characteristics of Rainfall Seasonality in Beijing Area Over the Past 300 Years[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2024135
Citation: JIAYI Lu, AIZHONG Ye, GUOCAN Wu, YUNA Mao. Characteristics of Rainfall Seasonality in Beijing Area Over the Past 300 Years[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2024135

北京地区近300年降水季节性变化特征

Characteristics of Rainfall Seasonality in Beijing Area Over the Past 300 Years

  • 摘要: 基于北京地区1724—2022年的月降水资料,定义了降水季节性指数(seasonality index,SI),量化了降水季节性特征,分析了降水季节性的变化趋势与波动规律,并探讨了降水季节性与海气指数的相关关系.研究结果表明:1724—2022年北京地区SI仅呈现微弱的递增趋势,其波动特征更为明显,表明降水季节性可能在增强.通过滑动t检验方法将SI序列划分为13个增减阶段.在1834年前,SI变化平缓,在1834年后,SI基本呈现以60 a为周期的增减交替.从季节尺度来看,在SI的递减阶段,降水季节性降低,降水分布更均匀,原本集中于夏季的降水趋于向秋季分散,其次为春季;在SI的递增阶段,降水季节性增强,降水更集中,表现为春季与秋季降水百分比有所降低,降水重新向夏季集中.4个海气因子中,印度洋偶极子模式指数与SI具有明显的负相关性,北大西洋涛动与太平洋年代际振荡指数在较长的时间尺度上与SI的负相关性更为稳定,而厄尔尼诺-南方涛动指数在较短的时间尺度上与SI的正相关性更为稳定.根据周期特征推测,当前很可能处于SI的上升阶段,有必要注意北京市夏季的防洪抗涝工作.

     

    Abstract: Based on the monthly precipitation data from 1724 to 2022 in the Beijing area, we define the Seasonality Index (SI) to quantify the seasonal characteristics of precipitation. This study analyzes the trends and fluctuations in precipitation seasonality and explores the correlation between precipitation seasonality and ocean-atmosphere indices. Our results indicate that from 1724 to 2022, the SI index in Beijing shows only a slight increasing trend, with more pronounced fluctuation characteristics, suggesting that precipitation seasonality may be intensifying. Using a moving t-test method, the SI series is divided into 13 phases of increase and decrease. Before 1834, the SI index showed little change; after 1834, the SI index alternated between increase and decrease in roughly 60-year cycles. On a seasonal scale, during the phases of decreasing SI, precipitation seasonality decreases, leading to a more even distribution of precipitation throughout the year. Rainfall that was originally concentrated in the summer tends to shift towards the autumn, followed by spring. During the phases of increasing SI, precipitation seasonality intensifies, resulting in more concentrated precipitation. The percentage of rainfall in spring and autumn decreases, and then concentrates back to the summer. Among the four ocean-atmosphere factors, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) exhibits a significant negative correlation with SI. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) show more stable negative correlations with SI over longer time scales. In contrast, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) demonstrates a more stable positive correlation with SI over shorter time scales. Based on the cyclical characteristics, it is inferred that we are likely in an ascending phase of SI. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to flood prevention and drainage efforts in Beijing, especially during Summer.

     

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